As the industry shifts from pure connectivity to value-added ecosystems, the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market is in a polarisation phase, where brand identity, data insights and customer proximity play a key role, alongside network quality, writes Anna Ribeiro. Retail MVNOs continue to expand, while IoT-specialised MVNOs are facing a reality check. Consumer-focused MVNOs enjoy stronger momentum, as the demand for mobile cost control and digital-first experiences remains high, but their IoT-centric providers are faced with challenges in the chaotic, diverse market.
Consumer MVNO growth across regions
Europe remains the benchmark for MVNO penetration. Discounters such as the UK’s Giffgaff catch price-sensitive subscribers, while the likes of Deutsche Telekom’s Congstar juggle premium and budget brands. eSIM penetration among European MVNOs has risen, making the process of network switching almost effortless. Demand for data-only MVNO plans is also increasing thanks to remote workers and frequent travellers.
Globally, Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region, with new entrants booming in Japan, China and India due to high smartphone penetration and conducive regulatory environments. Growth is also being driven by increasing demand for inexpensive, flexible data plans and the introduction of enablers such as eSIM. The region leads global MVNO adoption, with emerging markets driving expansion. Regulators in Thailand and India are mandating network access to MVNOs, enabling further growth.
Moving to the US, the consumer MVNO market is fairly mature from a subscriber volume perspective, yet it is still steadily growing. Subscribers are expected to increase from 68.48 million in 2025 to 84.52 million by 2030 at a CAGR of 4.3%. This growth is led by existing consumer demand for lower-cost plans, enterprise outsourcing of IoT connectivity and faster cloud adoption. Cable operators convert broadband strength to wireless cross-sell gains as retailers introduce eSIM-only brands that build digital engagement.
Cloud-based provisioning, eSIM-enabled flexibility and multi-toggle brand strategies allow MVNOs to efficiently scale and compete on customer experience rather than owning networks. Their integration with fintech and retail ecosystems also sets them apart in a crowded market.
IoT MVNOs: When growth meets complexity
The reality for the IoT MVNO segment is much different. While the IoT device ecosystem is set to reach billions of connected endpoints in the next few years, competition is ramping up. Operators need to provide platforms with global reach, enable remote provisioning, device management and analytics.
In an October 2025 report, Transforma Insights stated that MNOs and MVNOs will need to adapt their strategies for capturing the IoT connectivity opportunity under a different set of technological, regulatory and commercial conditions, apart from increasingly lucrative opportunities around AI. Acknowledging AI as both a driver and an enabler of change, it pushes demand for IoT connectivity, plays a role in optimising performance, and imposes further compliance requirements.
The delivery of cellular IoT connectivity is shifting to a new era, moving from global roaming and best-effort coverage towards a performance, compliance and technology diversity-focused model. This revolution is coming from technology innovation, regulatory oversight and AI adoption across IoT ecosystems.
Problems are structural. Technical complexity, regulatory barriers and MNO/cloud competition are squeezing margins for smaller players. However, many operators will have to compete through vertical specialisation, platform orchestration, or bundled services on top of basic connectivity. Interestingly, MVNOs are also outperforming some MNOs when it comes to adopting AI, demonstrating unexpected agility in emerging technologies. IoT MVNOs have to pivot toward platforms, enterprise partnerships or managed connectivity ecosystems. Success will involve scale, flexibility and differentiation.
The coming decade is expected to bring the continuation of consumer MVNO growth through further consolidation and repositioning amongst IoT-centric players, as competitive pressure sets in and technological expectations shift.
Anna Ribeiro